| Description | 'Thank you for your letter of April 23rd which I found on my return to Oxford. Generally I am not at all keen on being quoted by the Press but your questions are dictated by a genuine worry about the future, and I am therefore willing to make a few remarks.
I do not think one can give clear cut answers to most of your questions and this for two reasons. The destructiveness of an atomic war will depend on the number of atomic bombs which are available to the combatant parties. If each of them has say 1000 at their disposal, then certainly atomic warfare will be much more horrible than any the world has yet known. If they started with a few dozen then that is not the case. Thus the reply to many of your questions will depend on the time when the war breaks out. Secondly you have not taken into account the mechanism to be used for delivery of the bomb. I think it will be quite different if delivery is by aircraft than if by long range rockets. I have no information about the development of this type of rocket; I do not know when they will be available nor what the prospects of their accuracy from a bombing point of view will be.
One other remark concerning your questions 1 and 2. The answer to No.1 is obviously No. In question 2 you refer to "at least two countries" equipped for atomic warfare and the significance of this question must depend on which the two countries are. If these two countries are England and the Unitedd States, then I do not think there is any great danger of war.
My personal opinion is that it will take Russia certainly 8-10 years until she can produce atomic bombs. Obviously there is no very imminent danger of a war if she is only just beginning to prduce bombs. I think it will take her another 3-5 years before she would have sufficient stock of bombs available for a war against the U.S. to have any chance of success or for her to believe she had any chance of success.
I have made these remarks for your personal use and I trust you will make no reference to my name in connection with them, at least not without my first having seen the exact text of your proposed article. ' |