| Citation | David Spiegelhalter is distinguished for many contributions to theoretical and practical aspects of statistical methodology for complex problems, especially in the health sciences. He pioneered Bayesian approaches to clinical trials, and through initiating and leading the BUGS software project has made Bayesian graphical modelling of widespread practical value. His fundamental contributions to the statistics underlying clinical performance monitoring are demonstrated in his contributions to public debates on performance indicators, and through his leading role in the Bristol heart surgery and Harold Shipman public inquiries. He has also made major innovations in artificial intelligence: the Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter algorithm established the possibility of exact probabilistic reasoning in expert systems, and all probabilistic decision support systems today are built upon it. |